Matches

QatarvSwitzerland

Upcoming WC matches

Switzerland enter their World Cup Group B opener as strong favourites against a Qatar side in wretched form, and the desk's model firmly aligns with that view — if anything, the market may be underpricing the Swiss.

BrazilvMorocco

Upcoming WC matches

Brazil begin their World Cup campaign against a Morocco side fresh from AFCON glory, but Ancelotti's men must do so without record goalscorer Neymar. The model rates the market as materially undervaluing Morocco's chances, making this an intriguing opener.

AustraliavTurkey

Upcoming WC matches

Turkey enter their 2026 World Cup campaign as clear favourites against Australia, and the desk's Elo model rates them more strongly than the market implies — pointing to a meaningful edge on the Turkish side in this Group D fixture.

GermanyvCuracao

Upcoming WC matches

Germany open their World Cup campaign as overwhelming favourites against Curacao, who make their historic tournament debut. The model rates Germany's edge as even larger than the market implies, making this one of the clearest mismatches on the fixture list.

NetherlandsvJapan

Upcoming WC matches

Netherlands enter their World Cup Group F opener as the model's favoured side, though Japan arrive as credible dark horses whose market price the desk believes is materially undervalued. Two significant injury absences cloud Japan's attacking outlook heading into the contest.

SwedenvTunisia

Upcoming WC matches

Sweden enter this World Cup opener as the model's preferred side despite reaching the tournament via a secondary qualifying route. Tunisia face a meaningful Elo gap, and the market prices them as a clear underdog, broadly in line with the desk's assessment — though the model sees modest value on the Tunisian side.

SpainvCape Verde

Upcoming WC matches

Spain enter as one of the tournament's leading contenders against Cape Verde, who are making their World Cup debut. The model aligns broadly with the market in favouring Spain heavily, leaving limited value on either side of the main outcome.

IranvNew Zealand

Upcoming WC matches

Iran enter this World Cup opener as clear model favourites over the All Whites, yet an unprecedented wave of off-field disruptions clouds their preparation. The desk sees value on the Iranian side despite the surrounding turbulence.

FrancevSenegal

Upcoming WC matches

France enter this World Cup group fixture as substantial favourites, and the desk's Elo model sides with Senegal offering more value than the market implies, with the implied odds materially underrating the African side's chances.

ArgentinavAlgeria

Upcoming WC matches

Argentina face Algeria in their opening 2026 World Cup group fixture, with the model rating the defending champions considerably stronger than the market already implies. The desk identifies a meaningful edge on the Argentina side.

UzbekistanvColombia

Upcoming WC matches

Colombia open their 2026 World Cup campaign against debutants Uzbekistan, and the desk's model rates them as clear favourites — more so than the market already implies. The edge sits with Colombia, while Uzbekistan represent a live underdog on the biggest stage of their history.

Czech RepublicvSouth Africa

Upcoming WC matches

Both Czech Republic and South Africa arrive at this Group A fixture pointless after opening-round defeats, but the desk's Elo model rates the Czechs as meaningfully stronger than the market implies, identifying a clear edge on the Czech Republic side.

CanadavQatar

Upcoming WC matches

Canada carry a clear model advantage into their second Group B fixture against a Qatar side in dire recent form. The desk's Elo prior sits meaningfully above the market's implied probability for the co-hosts, pointing to a discernible edge on the Canadian side.

EcuadorvCuracao

Upcoming WC matches

Ecuador, one of South America's steadiest qualifiers, face a historic moment for Curacao, the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup. The model sees the South Americans as clear favourites, with a modest edge over where the market has settled.

New ZealandvEgypt

Upcoming WC matches

Egypt enter this Group G clash as clear favourites backed by a stronger squad and recent continental form, but the desk's Elo model finds the market has overshot Egypt's true probability — leaving a meaningful edge on New Zealand.

NorwayvSenegal

Upcoming WC matches

Norway arrive at their first World Cup in 28 years as one of the tournament's most talked-about dark horses, while Senegal face the added challenge of limited fan support due to US travel restrictions. The model sees Senegal as a modest value side relative to where the market has priced them.

Switzerlandv

Bosnia and HerzegovinavQatar

Upcoming WC matches

Bosnia and Herzegovina enter this fixture with a meaningful Elo advantage over a Qatar side in poor recent form, and the desk's model finds modest additional value on the Bosnian side beyond what the market implies. Qatar's abysmal recent record makes them a heavy underdog.

Czech RepublicvMexico

Upcoming WC matches

Czech Republic arrive at this Group A clash having lost their opener to South Korea, while Mexico carry the momentum of a confident home victory over South Africa. The model rates Mexico as clear favourites, and the market aligns closely with that view, leaving limited room for the Czechs.

Paraguayv

Cape VerdevSaudi Arabia

Upcoming WC matches

Cape Verde make their World Cup debut against a Saudi Arabia side in transition, with the model rating these two sides as near-identical in quality. The market, however, leans more firmly toward Cape Verde, creating a notable gap the desk flags around the draw.

UruguayvSpain

Upcoming WC matches

Spain arrive at this World Cup fixture as heavy favourites, backed by both the Elo model and the implied market prices. The desk sees additional value on the Spanish side, with the model rating their chances materially above what the market reflects.

CroatiavGhana

Upcoming WC matches

Croatia enter this World Cup group fixture as heavy favourites on both the model and the market, with the desk's Elo prior sitting well above the implied odds for Ghana. The edge sits firmly with Croatia, while Thomas Partey's expected return adds a layer of intrigue to Ghana's midfield picture.

AlgeriavAustria

Upcoming WC matches

Algeria make their first World Cup appearance since 2014 against an Austria side returning to the tournament after a 28-year absence. The model identifies Algeria as the value side, rating them meaningfully above where the market has priced them.