Morocco vs Haiti: World Cup Group Preview — Atlas Lions Heavy Favourites

Morocco vs Haiti — World Cup Group Stage

The Model's View

The Elo model and the market are in rare agreement here: Morocco are strongly favoured, with the implied odds and the model's probability sitting closely in line on the home side. The marginal edge the desk identifies sits with Haiti — not because they are expected to win, but because the market appears to have slightly overestimated Morocco's win probability while underpricing the visitor and the draw. That said, the edge is slim, and this is far from a high-conviction call in either direction.

Morocco: Strength, Transitions, and a Few Questions

Morocco arrive at this tournament with considerable pedigree. Their run to the semi-finals in 2022 announced them as a genuine force in world football, and they were recently crowned AFCON champions — reinforcing their standing as one of the continent's elite sides. Their defensive record is particularly notable: the Atlas Lions kept a first-half clean sheet in each of their last 24 international matches heading into this tournament, a remarkable streak of organisational discipline.

There are some caveats, however. A managerial change — Mohamed Ouahbi replacing Walid Regragui after the AFCON triumph — introduces a degree of uncertainty about tactical continuity. On the injury front, Abde Ezzalzouli suffered a sprained knee ligament and is likely ruled out for the entire tournament, while Anass Salah-Eddine and Noussair Mazraoui have also been flagged as doubts. Mazraoui is expected to be fit, but these are non-trivial concerns for a side whose defensive cohesion has been a hallmark. Squad replacements Marwane Saadane and Amine Sbai came in shortly before the tournament started.

Haiti: Returnees With Something to Prove

Haiti make their first World Cup appearance since 1974, when they lost all three group games and conceded fourteen goals. On paper, the gap between these sides is substantial — the Elo differential is large, placing Morocco firmly in the upper echelon and Haiti among the tournament's lesser-rated participants.

Yet Haiti are not without weapons. They topped their Concacaf qualifying group, with all-time top scorer Duckens Nazon (44 goals in 76 appearances) integral to that campaign. A pre-tournament friendly demolition of New Zealand suggests some attacking punch, though they subsequently lost to Peru in their final warm-up. The news also notes that Haiti possess pace and physical dynamism that could at minimum test Morocco's defence in transition. Crucially, Haitian fans face a full entry ban to the United States, meaning Morocco will enjoy a significant crowd advantage in terms of neutral or sympathetic support.

The Edge and the Verdict

The slim model edge points to the draw or Haiti rather than Morocco, suggesting the market may have compressed Morocco's odds marginally too far. However, the quality gap between these sides is large enough that fading Morocco outright requires conviction the signals do not fully support. Morocco's defensive solidity, AFCON pedigree, and Elo superiority make them the logical match winner. The desk's pick is nonetheless flagged toward the value implied by the slight market overestimation of Morocco's win probability, with the draw or Haiti outcome offering marginally better return relative to the model's assessment.