Scotland vs Morocco: Elo model firmly behind Atlas Lions in World Cup Group C clash

Scotland vs Morocco — World Cup Group C

Scotland's World Cup comeback story is one of the tournament's more compelling narratives, but the cold arithmetic of Elo ratings tells a sobering tale for Steve Clarke's side heading into their second group fixture against Morocco.

What the model says

The desk's Elo model places a vast gap between these two teams — a gap that is not merely reflected but actually understated by the market. Where the implied odds already make Morocco comfortable favourites, the model's probability for a Moroccan win sits substantially higher still. The edge on Morocco against the current market price is among the largest the model has produced for any fixture in this tournament, making this one of the cleaner analytical calls of the group stage.

Morocco's credentials

Morocco arrive at this fixture with genuine pedigree. They were surprise semi-finalists at the 2022 World Cup — the first African nation to reach that stage — and more recently claimed AFCON honours, cementing their status among the world's emerging powers. Their defensive record is formidable: the Atlas Lions kept a first-half clean sheet in each of their last 24 international matches prior to this tournament, a statistic that speaks to an exceptionally well-drilled defensive unit.

There are some selection concerns worth noting. Abde Ezzalzouli, a prolific wide forward, suffered a knee ligament injury and appears likely to miss the entire tournament. Anass Salah-Eddine, Chemsdine Talbi, and Noussair Mazraoui were all cited as doubts for Morocco's opening game, though Mazraoui's shoulder issue was considered likely to clear in time. Manager Mohamed Ouahbi, who replaced Walid Regragui following the AFCON triumph, faces the task of maintaining the standards his predecessor built — but the squad's core quality remains intact.

Scotland's challenge

Scotland arrive with genuine momentum from qualifying and warm-up form, having won six consecutive matches before the tournament and recording back-to-back four-goal wins against Curacao and Bolivia in preparation. Scott McTominay, their standout creative force who won the Napoli Scudetto as MVP and has been in prolific goalscoring form across recent seasons, is confirmed fit after a stomach complaint. Scott McKenna is unavailable with a calf issue, and Billy Gilmour's tournament-ending knee injury is a meaningful loss to midfield depth.

The concern for Scotland, however, is structural. They have not won a match at a major tournament in 30 years, collecting only a single point at each of their last two European Championships. Clarke's side have demonstrated they can compete — the 4-4-2 formation with Lawrence Shankland and Che Adams as a dual strike threat showed promise — but stepping up against a side ranked seventh in the world represents a different order of challenge entirely.