Turkey vs Paraguay: Elo edge favours Turkey as Paraguay arrive wounded from World Cup opener

Turkey vs Paraguay — World Cup 2026 Group D

Model vs Market

The desk's Elo model rates Turkey materially stronger than the market currently reflects. The implied odds undervalue Turkey's chances, and the model's probability for a Turkish win sits noticeably ahead of the market-implied figure — a meaningful gap that constitutes a clear edge on the Turkey side. Paraguay, by contrast, are priced slightly generously given their form and structural vulnerabilities entering this match.

Turkey's Strengths

Turkey arrive at this World Cup with arguably their most talented generation in decades. Manager Vincenzo Montella has assembled a tactically fluid 4-2-3-1 system built on midfield control and attacking fluidity. The spine of the team is formidable: Hakan Calhanoglu operates as a deep-lying regista of the highest order, conducting the tempo of play, while Arda Guler — who recovered from a pre-tournament injury scare — and Kenan Yildiz (10 Serie A goals for Juventus this season) provide genuine star quality in attack. Ferdi Kadioglu, coming off a strong season at Brighton, adds width and a consistent offensive threat. Turkey secured their World Cup place with back-to-back 1-0 wins in the European play-offs, demonstrating composure under pressure. Notably, the news bundle flags that Turkey defeated the United States in a friendly in the past year, underlining their competitive pedigree against Group D opposition.

The caveat for Turkey is structural: their commitment to attacking fluidity can leave them exposed when the defensive midfield pivot is isolated and the press is bypassed. Opponents with quality on the counter could find space in behind.

Paraguay's Situation

Paraguay come into this fixture badly damaged in confidence after a 4-1 defeat to the USA in their opening game. They conceded four first-half goals and offered little in the second half offensively. Their most creative player, Julio Enciso, arrived at the tournament carrying a thigh injury sustained in a pre-tournament friendly and his availability and sharpness must be questioned. Their lead striker Antonio Sanabria also arrives short of match fitness after limited club minutes.

Structurally, Paraguay under Gustavo Alfaro are a defensively organised side — a compact 4-4-2 in the low block, with Andres Cubas providing relentless intensity in midfield and the centre-back pairing of Gustavo Gomez and Omar Alderete offering genuine quality at the back. Their qualification campaign — which included victories over Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay — demonstrated their capacity to absorb pressure and punish on the counter. But they are a low-scoring outfit who depend heavily on individual moments or set-pieces to create danger, and with Enciso's fitness uncertain, that creative outlet is diminished.

A second defeat here would effectively end Paraguay's group stage ambitions, which may force Alfaro to open up — playing into Turkey's hands.