Turkey vs United States: Elo model favours Turkey against a market that leans USA

Turkey vs United States — Group D, World Cup 2026

What the model says

The Elo prior and the market are pointing in opposite directions here, and the gap is substantial. The model rates Turkey as the stronger outfit — meaningfully so — while the implied odds tilt in favour of the United States. That kind of divergence is where the desk's edge tends to live, and it is firmly on Turkey in this fixture.

Turkey's credentials

Turkey arrive at this tournament having navigated a pair of tight European play-off wins to qualify, and the squad represents arguably the strongest generation the nation has produced in living memory. The engine room is formidable: Hakan Calhanoglu has evolved into a deep-lying regista capable of dictating tempo at the highest level, Arda Guler — Champions League Young Player of the Season at Real Madrid — recovered from a pre-tournament injury scare and is expected to be fit, and Kenan Yildiz contributed double figures in Serie A goals for Juventus this season. Ferdi Kadioglu, off the back of a strong season at Brighton, provides a further attacking dimension. Coach Vincenzo Montella has built a fluid 4-2-3-1 system with genuine tactical cohesion and, by all accounts, a calm, settled camp.

The vulnerability the signals identify is structural: Turkey's attacking commitment can leave them exposed when their press is bypassed. Against a USA side that presses high and transitions quickly, that is worth monitoring.

United States — form and uncertainty

The USA arrive with significant momentum. Their tournament opener against Paraguay was described as among the more complete American performances at a World Cup — a four-goal victory built on high pressing, attacking fluidity and an extraordinary debut from Folarin Balogun, who became the first American to score twice in a World Cup match since 1930. Mauricio Pochettino's 3-4-3 shape achieved the kind of synchrony between lines that had been inconsistent in the pre-tournament run.

However, context matters. Against Paraguay the signals note the USA lost to Turkey in a pre-tournament friendly, giving Montella's staff direct film to work from. Christian Pulisic, who was withdrawn at half-time as a precaution following a calf issue against Paraguay, faces a fitness question ahead of this fixture — the signals are unclear on severity. Seventeen of the USA's squad play in Europe's top five leagues, and the squad depth is real, but the Elo gap between these sides is not negligible.

The framing

The market has priced the United States as the slight favourite, plausibly reflecting home-tournament momentum and the Paraguay performance. The model disagrees: it sees Turkey as the more accomplished side at this stage, and the implied price on Turkey represents a material undervaluation relative to the Elo prior. That is the desk's call here.