Japan vs Sweden: World Cup Group F Preview — Elo Model Strongly Favours the Blue Samurai

Japan vs Sweden — Group F, 2026 FIFA World Cup

The Model View

The desk's Elo model rates Japan substantially higher than Sweden, and that gap is reflected clearly in the probability triplet. What makes this fixture notable is the disconnect between that model view and where the market has priced Japan: the implied odds significantly underrate the Blue Samurai relative to the model's assessment, producing a clear positive edge on the Japan side. Sweden's implied price, by contrast, sits above what the model believes it should be — the market appears to be overvaluing the Swedes.

Japan's Tournament Context

Japan were the first nation to secure World Cup qualification, doing so via a near-flawless Asian campaign. Manager Hajime Moriyasu has spoken openly about his belief that his squad is capable of going deep in the tournament. Japan's Elo rating reflects a side that has consistently performed at a high level on the international stage.

However, the injury situation complicates the picture. Captain Wataru Endo has withdrawn from the squad entirely — the Liverpool midfielder subsequently announced his retirement from international football after 73 caps — a significant leadership and midfield loss. Brighton winger Kaoru Mitoma has also been ruled out with a hamstring injury, removing one of Japan's most dangerous wide threats. Takumi Minamino is another notable absentee through injury.

The replacements in situ do carry quality. Takefusa Kubo provides genuine creative threat from wide areas, while Ayase Ueda — who won the Eredivisie golden boot this season — leads the attacking line. Shuto Machino of Borussia Mönchengladbach was called up to fill the Endo vacancy in the squad. The depth is real, even if the headline absences sting.

Sweden's Route Here

Sweden's path to this World Cup was notably unconventional. They finished bottom of their qualifying group and reached the tournament only via the Nations League secondary route under Graham Potter. Potter's reputation took damage during his spells at club level, though he retains strong support within the Swedish football community.

Despite that qualification context, Sweden do carry genuine attacking threat. Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak represent one of the more formidable striking partnerships in the tournament, and either could punish a Japan defensive lapse on the counter. The question is whether Sweden's underlying structural issues — a difficult qualification, a Potter project still finding its footing — limit their ceiling against a Japan side with a healthier Elo base.

Logistical Notes

Both squads cancelled planned training sessions at Estadio Universitario after FIFA determined the pitch did not meet elite standards. Both will instead use Monterrey Rayados' facilities in the build-up — an equal disruption to preparation that likely neutralises itself.