France vs Iraq: World Cup Group Stage Preview

France vs Iraq — World Cup Group Stage

The Model's View

The Elo model rates France as one of the most formidable sides in this tournament, and the gap between the two squads is substantial. The market, however, has priced France even more aggressively than the model suggests, meaning the implied probability for a French win sits slightly ahead of what the desk's prior would justify. For Iraq, the model sees a marginally better chance than the market implies — though the difference is small and the overall probability remains low. The draw carries a similarly slim edge against the market price.

In short: France are the overwhelming favourite by any measure, but the market may have slightly overshot on their win probability.

France: Firepower and Friction

France arrive with arguably the deepest attacking squad in the competition. Michael Olise has been in electric form, scoring a hat-trick in the warm-up victory over Northern Ireland and earning strong praise from manager Didier Deschamps. The attacking collective — which combined for over 100 club goals last season — gives France a genuinely frightening array of options.

Yet questions linger. Kylian Mbappe has managed only one international goal across his last four appearances despite prolific club form, and reports of friction within the camp over his attitude and defensive commitment have surfaced ahead of the tournament. Deschamps, who has confirmed he will step down after the World Cup, will be under scrutiny to harness that talent without sacrificing structure.

On the injury front, there is some cause for caution: William Saliba missed consecutive training sessions with back pain, while Théo Hernandez and Aurélien Tchouaméni were also absent — though the latter two absences were described as precautionary. France's tactical setup also remains a talking point after they reached the Euro 2024 semi-finals without scoring an open-play goal.

France's travel schedule is notably favourable, with all group-stage games on the east coast, limiting fatigue.

Iraq: Historic Qualification, Steep Task

Iraq's presence at this World Cup is itself a milestone — their first finals appearance in 40 years, secured via a playoff victory over Bolivia. The qualification generated enormous national pride, but the football reality is stark: they have been drawn into one of the competition's most challenging groups alongside France, Senegal, and Norway.

Preparation has not been smooth. Iraq lost their final warm-up match and several squad personnel — including a team photographer and striker Aymen Hussein — faced prolonged detention or denial at the US border, adding logistical disruption ahead of their opening fixture. Iraqi fans have also widely abandoned attempts to obtain visas, meaning the team will face a largely empty supporter section.