France vs Senegal: Model finds value with Les Bleus as heavy market favourite

France vs Senegal — Group Stage Preview

The Model's View

France carry a large Elo advantage into this fixture, and the market reflects that, pricing them as heavy favourites. However, the model's probability for a French win sits meaningfully below the market's implied figure, suggesting the market has overcorrected in France's favour. Conversely, the model's assessment of a Senegal win lands above the market's implied probability — a clear edge that points to the African side being undervalued at current prices. The draw is similarly overpriced by the market relative to the model's expectation.

France: Depth, Disruption, and a Complicated Star

France arrive at the tournament with arguably the deepest attacking squad in the competition. Michael Olise has been in scintillating form — his hat-trick in the warm-up win over Northern Ireland underlined his importance, with manager Didier Deschamps openly calling him decisive and essential for the campaign. Arsène Wenger has publicly backed France to lift the trophy, citing that attacking depth.

Yet there are genuine question marks. William Saliba missed consecutive training sessions with back pain in the days leading up to the tournament, while Théo Hernandez and Aurélien Tchouaméni were also absent from Friday's session — though the latter two were described as precautionary. A defensive line shorn of Saliba would represent a real setback for a side that famously prioritises solidity.

Kylian Mbappé's situation adds further complexity. Despite scoring prolifically at club level, he has managed only one goal in his past four international appearances and spurned chances in the Northern Ireland match. Reports of squad tension and a difficult dynamic with teammates are an undercurrent that Deschamps — departing after this tournament — will need to manage carefully. France infamously reached the Euro 2024 semi-finals without scoring an open-play goal, so structural attacking issues are not new.

France's group-stage travel schedule is notably compact, keeping them on the east coast throughout — a logistical advantage over many rivals.

Senegal: A Live Underdog With Context

Senegal face a challenging external environment: their supporters have encountered significant entry restrictions into the United States, meaning the stadium atmosphere is unlikely to provide the usual African footballing colour and noise. That is a contextual factor rather than a footballing one, but it reinforces the sense that the side will be operating without the backing they might otherwise expect.

The news bundle does not carry detailed Senegal squad or form updates beyond the regulatory context, so the model's Elo-based read — that the market has gone too far in pricing Senegal's chances down — is the primary signal here.