Iraq vs Norway: Model Strongly Favours Norway in World Cup Group I Opener

Match Overview

This Group I opener pits Iraq — back at the World Cup for the first time in 40 years — against a Norway side that enters the tournament as one of Europe's most dangerous and cohesive units. The Elo model reflects a large ratings gap between the two sides, and the desk's prior sits firmly in Norway's favour, to an extent that actually exceeds where the market is already pricing them.

Norway: Relentless in Qualifying, Dangerous in Attack

Norway's qualifying campaign was nothing short of exceptional. They won all eight of their matches, scoring the highest number of goals of any European qualifier and conceding almost nothing. Erling Haaland was the headline act — matching the record for goals scored in a European qualifying campaign — but this Norway side is far from a one-man team.

Martin Ødegaard, the Arsenal captain and a Premier League title winner, finished as Europe's leading assist-provider during qualifying. Julian Ryerson registered a remarkable number of assists for Borussia Dortmund last season. Alexander Sørloth provides a physically imposing alternative striking option, and young wide players like Antonio Nusa add unpredictability. Manager Ståle Solbakken has built a system based on patient buildup, rapid transitions, and the ability to overpower opponents aerially — a style that will be difficult for Iraq to contain.

Norway's most recent form also holds up: they have lost just once in their last 16 matches and beat Sweden in a pre-tournament friendly.

Iraq: Historic Return, Significant Obstacles

Iraq's qualification itself was a remarkable achievement — a playoff victory over Bolivia secured their first World Cup berth since 1986, generating enormous national celebration. However, the path to this match has not been smooth.

Iraq lost their final warm-up fixture 2-0 to Venezuela, which does little to build confidence ahead of facing one of Europe's strongest qualifiers. Beyond results on the pitch, Iraq have faced significant off-field disruptions. Team personnel including a photographer were denied entry or subjected to prolonged detention at the US border, with the suspension of US consular services in Iraq cited as a contributing factor. Iraqi supporters have also described abandoning attempts to enter the United States due to visa difficulties, meaning Iraq will likely play in a hostile or largely neutral atmosphere.

They have been drawn into arguably the toughest group in the tournament, alongside France, Senegal, and Norway — a brutal assignment for a side returning to this stage after four decades.

Model vs Market

The Elo model rates Norway as heavy favourites, and that edge over the market sits on the Norway side — meaning the model believes even the market's already substantial implied probability for a Norway win is still understating their true advantage. For Iraq, the market's implied price is already quite short, yet the model still suggests it may be generous relative to their actual chances.