Argentina vs Austria: Defending champions heavy favourites but questions linger

Argentina vs Austria — World Cup Group Stage Preview

The Model's View

The desk's Elo model places a large gap between these two sides in terms of underlying quality — Argentina's adjusted rating sits well clear of Austria's, and the model assigns the defending champions a materially higher win probability than the market currently implies. That divergence is the central finding here: the market acknowledges Argentina as heavy favourites, but the model says the market is still undervaluing them by a meaningful margin. The edge on Argentina is among the cleaner signals the desk has seen at this stage of the tournament.

Argentina: Strength and Vulnerability

Argentina arrive in 2026 as the number-one ranked side in the world and defending champions, with 17 members of the 2022 World Cup-winning squad returning. They topped South American qualifying with considerable distance between themselves and the rest of the field, and warmed up with a convincing win over Iceland — Messi scoring from the penalty spot despite managing a hamstring concern throughout.

That hamstring issue is the headline caveat. Messi has been managing soreness and, while he returned against Iceland and looked sharp in a cameo, the question of how heavily he will be used in the group phase remains open. The desk notes, however, that Hernan Crespo — who knows this squad intimately — has pointed out that Argentina are capable of performing with or without Messi in the lineup, suggesting the system is no longer entirely dependent on one man.

There are softer concerns in the squad too. Several midfielders, including Mac Allister and Tagliafico, arrive off the back of difficult club seasons. Romero's erratic performances for Tottenham are well-documented. Goalkeeper Emi Martinez continues to manage a broken finger. Balerdi has been ruled out entirely through injury, with Marcos Senesi called up as replacement. And the squad as a whole is four years older than the group that triumphed in Qatar, having faced a relatively untested schedule of warmup opponents.

Still, the continuity argument is powerful. This is a settled, experienced, tournament-hardened group that knows how to win when it matters.

Austria: Genuine Quality, Significant Absentee

Australia are not here to make up the numbers. They qualified for the first time in 28 years and impressed at Euro 2024, topping a group containing France and the Netherlands — a result that underscored genuine competitive development under their current setup. Konrad Laimer has been in fine form for Bayern Munich, and youngster Paul Wanner, who chose Austria over Germany, is regarded as one of the game's brightest emerging talents.

The significant blow, however, is the confirmed absence of Christoph Baumgartner through a thigh injury. The RB Leipzig midfielder was one of Austria's most influential players heading into the tournament, and his loss meaningfully reduces their creative and pressing threat in the middle of the park.