England vs Croatia: World Cup 2026 Group L opener in Arlington, Texas

England vs Croatia — Group L, World Cup 2026

This Group L opener carries historical weight: Croatia famously eliminated England at the 2018 World Cup semi-final in Moscow, and the sides now meet again on the grandest stage. The context, however, is markedly different. England arrive with significant Elo superiority — a large ratings gap separates the two sides — and the model rates them as clear favourites. Where this fixture gets analytically interesting is the relationship between the model and the market: the implied odds on an England win sit above what the Elo prior calculates, meaning the market has overshot the model's assessment of England's advantage. The edge, such as it is, does not sit with England at the market price.

England's preparations

England have arrived in Kansas City having completed an encouraging warm-up cycle. Thomas Tuchel's side beat Costa Rica 3-0 in their final official friendly — a commanding, high-tempo display that featured contributions from Declan Rice, Anthony Gordon, and a late Ollie Watkins finish — and followed that with a 6-0 behind-closed-doors rout of Miami United, where Ivan Toney scored a hat-trick. Qualification was flawless: eight wins, no goals conceded.

Tuchel appears to have settled on Jude Bellingham at No. 10 ahead of Morgan Rogers, after Bellingham's standout performances in the Florida camp. Rice arrives fresh from a Premier League title with Arsenal and has been in excellent form. Harry Kane, who just completed the most prolific club season of his career, anchors the attack in a deep false-nine role built around his link play and movement. Anthony Gordon has seemingly edged out Marcus Rashford for the left-wing berth.

There are notes of caution. Bukayo Saka enters the tournament managing an Achilles complaint and is unlikely to be at full capacity from the start. More unusually, England's travelling party suffered a pre-tournament equipment theft — match boots, official tournament balls, and Thomas Tuchel's tactical whiteboards were taken during transit to Kansas City — introducing a logistical distraction in the final preparation days. The practical impact on the match itself is uncertain, but it is an unwanted disruption ahead of a World Cup opener.

The squad's reported cohesion is notably stronger than at Euro 2024, when Bellingham himself acknowledged off-pitch issues hampered the group. Tuchel has deliberately cultivated a "brotherhood" environment, and multiple players have described the current camp atmosphere as significantly improved.

The analytical picture

The Elo model places England as clear favourites — a substantial gap in adjusted ratings. Yet the market has pushed England's implied probability meaningfully beyond what the model supports, creating a situation where England are over-priced relative to the desk's prior. The edge, per the formula, does not favour taking England at the available implied odds — and the draw is similarly assessed as offering no material value.