Argentina favored heavily as underdogs Cape Verde seek World Cup upset in Miami

Argentina face Cape Verde in a last-32 clash that pits the defending World Cup champions and tournament favorites against the tournament's most improbable success story. The Elo model views this as a lopsided affair, with Argentina holding a decisive quality advantage across the board. The market, however, prices a narrower gap, suggesting some belief that Cape Verde's remarkable run—three draws in group play, the smallest nation by population ever to reach the knockout stage—could yield further drama.

Argentina arrive in sublime form. Lionel Messi has single-handedly driven the team's group-stage dominance, becoming the first player to score in seven consecutive World Cup matches and extending his all-time tally to 19 goals, eclipsing Miroslav Klose's previous record. Manager Lionel Scaloni has rotated intelligently, preserving key players for the knockout rounds while still securing top spot in Group J with five goals across the first two matches. The side demonstrated attacking fluency against Algeria and Austria, and though Messi was rested for the group finale against Jordan, the broader squad depth—Lautaro Martínez, Giovani Lo Celso, and others—offers multiple avenues to goals.

Cape Verde's pathway has been built on discipline, organization, and a standout performance from 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha. Three draws—against Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia—carried them through on a wave of defensive solidity and midfield coherence. Coach Bubista, named the Confederation of African Football's coach of the year for 2025, has instilled a compact shape that has frustrated far more established sides. Yet the gap in offensive firepower is stark. Cape Verde have created sparingly and will need to be near-perfect defensively to mount a genuine threat.

The Elo prior reflects Argentina's towering advantage in raw quality and pedigree, and rightly so. Messi's individual brilliance, combined with the team's proven ability to break down defenses at pace, should prove decisive over 90 minutes. Cape Verde's achievement in reaching the knockout stage deserves celebration, but the fixture itself offers little intrigue from a pure prediction standpoint. Argentina's experience, depth, and attacking arsenal make them clear favorites across every dimension.