Colombia face Ghana with Elo edge but market pricing suggests caution

Colombia secured top spot in Group K and qualified for the knockout stage with a draw against Portugal, demonstrating resilience and tactical discipline. Ghana, meanwhile, ground out results through a low-block defensive approach under Carlos Queiroz—a formula that yielded four points and earned them progression as group runners-up ahead of their final fixture against Croatia.

The Elo model favours Colombia materially. The Colombian side enters the knockout phase riding momentum from back-to-back wins in the group stage, with Daniel Muñoz providing attacking thrust from full-back and Luis Díaz adding creative spark in forward areas. James Rodríguez orchestrated play in midfield with quality and experience, while the team showed genuine belief they could progress deep into the tournament. Ghana's strength lies in their organisation and defensive discipline. Queiroz has built a compact 4-5-1 shape that neutralises pressing sides and invites counter-attacking opportunities. They held England to a goalless draw despite 19 shots and have now qualified for the knockout stages for the first time since 2010—a significant achievement that speaks to the solidity of their setup.

However, the implied market prices do not fully reflect Colombia's structural advantage. The model's probability sits well above what the market suggests, indicating a meaningful edge. Ghana's defensive framework, while effective in the group stage, may struggle against Colombia's technical quality and ability to retain possession; Díaz's acceleration and Muñoz's support from the flank create scoring threats that Ghana's low block has not yet faced. Colombia's finishing also showed improvement as the group progressed, having converted clinical opportunities against DR Congo.

The margin between the model prior and the market prices remains material but not overwhelming. Colombia will be favoured by the formula and the desk's analytical read, yet Ghana's recent form and the inherent uncertainty of knockout football counsel a measured approach rather than a forceful conviction.